Article - Dispelling the Myths

Dispelling the Myths

01-31-2016

Lisa Caputo

As we get ready for the eighth season of Castle to continue next week, I wanted to take some time to address three of the main myths within the online fandom that we could do a better job of understanding and avoiding.  These are things we have been dealing with for years now and all do a disservice to all fans of the show as they add nothing to our conversations about the actual storylines, characters, or the creative merits of the show.  All they do is pit fans against each other to argue over trivial things or things we really don’t have enough knowledge of as viewers to come to proper conclusions about.  As fans, we can do a much better job of concentrating on discussing the creative aspects of the show; analysing the story and the characters and finding an appreciation for the nuances we may miss that others have caught.  Together, we can help make being a part of an online fandom worth the time and effort it takes by sharing ideas, theories, and details with one another that will further enhance our enjoyment of the show.  Instead, we seem to spend a lot of time debating ratings, putting down the opinions of others because of the way we word our thoughts, or panicking over whether or not the show is going to be cancelled.  At the end of the day, there’s a great amount we can gain even when debating the creative aspects of the show we may not all agree on.  Healthy debate is a good thing and discussing the various ways of seeing the same story can help others look at the story from a different viewpoint, perhaps gaining more understanding for why others see it differently even if we don’t change our own opinions.  But when it comes to the trivial things or things that really shouldn’t be our focus as viewers of the show, there’s nothing to gain by us debating these issues and going back and forth on them when the reality is that we don’t even have enough information available to us to make certain conclusions.  So in an attempt to get back to the point where we can spend the rest of the season discussing what’s truly important and maybe bridge the gaps amongst the fandom, let’s address these myths and see if we can dispel them.

Myth #1
The ratings show that viewers have “left in droves” because of this season’s storyline so far

This is one that absolutely astounds me on various levels and as someone who chooses to spend their time writing about the creative merits of the show, I’d much rather focus on that than answering questions on a weekly basis about what I think of the ratings.  For one, we don’t have a clue what the network expects the ratings to be in order for the show to continue so any comparisons we make when it comes to the ratings are ultimately useless.  Unless we know the threshold for what the network will and won’t accept in terms of ratings and viewership, there’s really no point debating whether the ratings are good enough or not.  Also, ratings only track viewership by people who are part of the Nielson program, which means they’re already discounting the various other forms of viewership that now exist in the ever-changing television landscape.  On-Demand viewing, online viewing, subscriptions through platforms like iTunes or Amazon, mobile apps that allow us to watch shows on phones and tablets, and other such sources aren’t currently tracked by the Nielson ratings so we’re already discounting a large number of viewers by only paying attention to those ratings, not to mention that it also discounts any viewers outside of the US despite the fact that having a large international audience is important to bringing in revenue, including advertising revenue, so the Nielson ratings are no longer the be-all-and-end-all that they once were.  Times have changed and even the Live + 3 Day DVR ratings are now being factored into what a network will charge for advertising space, a stark indication that the Live + 7 Day ratings will likely also become a factor, as do online and On-Demand viewership as advertisers have to pay for ad space on these platforms.  Even most networks now promote their online services for people to watch shows they missed live online because they recognize the importance of these platforms now more than ever.  So live ratings aren’t the focus that they once were as there are so many other viable forms of revenue for the networks.

With that said, I still want to address this myth from a factual level rather than trying to convince people not to pay as much attention to the ratings themselves as they seem to.  So let’s look at the numbers themselves because in doing so, we can see that there’s absolutely no factual truth to this myth that the current storyline of season eight has pushed viewers away in droves.  In fact, the ratings for Castle have been remarkably consistent throughout the entire season, and while the overall viewership appears to have been down all season, these could simply be signs of the changing times or signs of an aging show that people don’t feel the need to watch live as much as a newer and much more “hyped” show.  People are more prone to watch sporting events, special events, or new/popular shows live that other people will be talking about the next day.  Nobody wants to be left of the proverbial watercooler conversation so we tend to watch shows live that will include us in those discussions rather than shows that we can easily catch up on the next day, especially those in a later 10pm timeslot.  So while the argument can be made that the show itself has lost viewers between last season and this season, that argument can be made for pretty much every show on every network and the argument that the show has lost viewers throughout the season because of unhappy fans not being engaged with the current storyline is completely unsupported by the numbers.

So let’s look at those numbers; Castle started the season with live ratings of 1.2 in the demo and 6.840 million viewers, numbers that increased to a 2.2 in the demo and 10.920 million viewers with the L+7 ratings.  It ended with the midseason finale getting live ratings of 1.1 in the demo and 6.655 million viewers, increasing to 1.9 in the demo and 10.066 million viewers.  So over the eight-episode season so far, the show has only lost 0.1 points in the live demo and 0.185 million live viewers, or 0.3 points in the weekly demo and 0.854 million viewers for the week.  Those are some of the steadiest numbers amongst all shows during the fall season and it shows that Castle retained its audience well throughout the season, despite some promoting the idea that fans have been tuning out in droves.  In fact, at its lowest point in the season (which came after a two-week hiatus between episodes five and six) the show only saw a decrease of 0.2 points in the live demo and 0.771 million live viewers or 0.2 points in the weekly demo and 0.890 million weekly viewers.

To compare, we’ll look at both Blindspot as its direct competition and How To Get Away With Murder as one of ABC’s highest-rated dramas.  Blindspot lost 1.2 points in the live demo over the season and lost 3.579 million live viewers over the season, increasing to a loss of 1.5 points in the weekly demo and 4.401 million weekly viewers over the season.  That’s a massive 26% drop in viewership compared to the mere 8% drop that Castle had so far this season.  Meanwhile, How To Get Away With Murder lost 0.3 points in the live demo over the season and 1.191 million live viewers, increasing to a loss of 0.4 points in the weekly demo and 1.831 million weekly viewers, a 14% drop, which was also lower because of some very strong midseason finale numbers.

By the midseason finales, Castle was only 0.371 million viewers away from Blindspot in live viewership, closing a gap that began at 3.765 million viewers for their season premieres.  So the novelty of the new and very hyped Blindspot seemed to wear off by the end of the season with viewer retention not being very strong, whereas the Castle audience stayed consistent from start to finish.  This shows factual evidence that the viewership didn’t drop as a result of people being disheartened by the current storyline.  In fact, very few viewers dropped off, especially in comparison to the viewers of the others shows compared above.  So there’s really nothing in the numbers to support the myth that a large number of viewers have stopped tuning in because of the storyline this season, let alone that viewers have left the show in droves because of that storyline.  If that was true, we’d see it in the numbers.

Myth #2

The show is on the bubble of being cancelled because of the ratings

This one kind of goes along with #1 above.  Again, we don’t know what the network expects of each of their individual shows before they’ll even consider cancellation as an option.  The reality is that Castle has a steady and consistent audience, along with so many other sources of revenue that we know are strong and steady as well (ie: book sales, online episode subscriptions, on-demand and online ad revenue, merchandising, e-books, DVD sales, etc.) and the only true factor for a network to consider when deciding whether to renew or cancel a series is its profitability.  Does the show bring in enough revenue in comparison to the costs involved in making the show, thus making it profitable?  Does the network have another show that they believe will be more profitable to them in that specific timeslot?  If not, the show won’t be cancelled.  And again, we don’t know what the profit margin is or what the network expects at this point, so to actually predict that verdict based solely on the ratings is laughable.  Shows have historically still been cancelled despite having sky-high ratings (think “Without A Trace”) because of profitability issues and shows have also historically been kept on the air despite low ratings because they had a loyal fan base that generate revenue in other forms.  Plus, ABC tends to be a network that isn’t as quick to cancel shows as some of the others are.  Heck, they even sat on the fence with “Blood & Oil” for much longer than most networks would have, just to see if there could be something there worth saving.

But despite everything I’ve said above, I caution people all the time about taking someone’s personal opinion about a cancellation or renewal as fact.  Ultimately, unless someone works for the network and knows the inside information (and nobody in that situation would ever really release that information to the public before the network is ready to), none of us can give even an educated guess that should be taken as fact.  Even the sites we go to for ratings information are clear that they are, in no way, affiliated with the networks so while they’re great for tracking the actual ratings, any opinions or predictions they make are not to be taken as anything but a personal opinion or personal prediction.  In the case of Castle, however, we’ve gotten the word right from the source that the network has every intention of seeing the show continue on, even to the extent of saying they’d be willing to continue the series without its lead stars.  So when the network execs themselves come out to say that they have no plans to cancel the series, we should really take that as the truth because it’s coming from the exact source that will make those decisions.

So really, I’m astounded that I’m still reading posts from people talking about how the show needs to get its ratings back up or it’s going to face cancellation despite the fact that the network execs have come out to dispel that myth not long ago.  Sure, things can change and the network could change its mind later on in the season.  But at this point, it’s pretty safe to say that they’re behind the show and plans of cancellation are not on the horizon just yet.  So this is just a myth for now and until we hear something otherwise from the network, let’s just concentrate on more important things than this constant state of fear that the show is on the bubble.  Just as it was last year around this time, it seems much more likely that a ninth season will depend entirely on whether or not both of the leads decide to sign on for another season.  And we likely won’t know that for a while still.  But in terms of the network wanting to cancel the show because of the ratings, it’s already been proven that this is a myth.

Myth #3

The majority of the fans aren’t happy with the current season

This is a tricky one but I feel it’s also an incredibly important one as well.  The problem I have with this myth is that by assuming any of us speaks for the fans or the so-called “majority” of the fans, we alienate and discredit all other opinions out there.  And the reality is that there’s no way we could possibly know what the actual majority thinks so why use such strong wording that puts others down when there’s no factual evidence to support that assumption?  I’ve got my critics and I’ve certainly been called intolerant of other viewpoints but the fact is that I don’t ever attempt to push my own opinions as being anything other than my own opinions.  But I see it out there in the fandom all the time where people say things like “the fans” think this or “the majority of the fans” feel this way and that’s what I would determine as being truly intolerant because there’s no basis in reality to make such a statement.  After all, how does anyone know what the tens of millions of viewers around the world really think or feel?  If we’re basing it on numbers, the steady viewership I outlined earlier would suggest that the actual majority of television viewers in the US are still tuning in week after week on a very steady basis.  But even with that, I can’t make the conclusion that those viewers are happy with the show or tuning in because they’re entirely content with the storylines, merely that they’re still tuning in so they haven’t given up on the show.  And that’s only the US television viewers alone, numbers that discount the online viewers and international audiences, something that ignores another very large portion of the overall fan base.  At this point, there’s no way to measure their viewership and certainly no way to measure what they think or feel about the current storylines.  So how can we possibly say we speak for “the fans” or “the majority of the fans” when we don’t have a clue how to properly measure those things?

Something I’ve noticed is this; we all tend to gravitate to likeminded people when it comes to who we talk to, which columnists or bloggers we read reviews and articles from, which message boards we may post on, and what kind of people we have on our social media feeds.  I think this may be the main reason people are so quick to assume that their opinion is shared by the majority of the fans because to them, what they see more than anything, are posts or comments that support their own views.  But consider the limitations of what we individually see from these sources and consider the very small percentage of fans that these posts or comments represent when compared to the overall viewing audience or fandom as a whole.

Let’s take Twitter as an example because this is a leading social media network.  Currently, the main Castle account with ABC has 711,000 followers.  Even if every one of those followers felt one way about the show, which we know isn’t true, that’s still only a small fraction of the greater Castle audience. 711,000 followers compared to the 10+ million who watch the show on a weekly basis in the US alone is only 7% of that audience, and that’s much less when you factor in the other 3+ million Canadian viewers plus the online viewers around the world plus the international television audience.  Even if we only estimate the overall viewership at 15 million, something that’s definitely on the low side but based on what we know as factual numbers from US and Canadian ratings alone plus a couple million more around the world, that percentage now drops to less than 5%.  So even if all of the Castle fans on Twitter agreed on one specific viewpoint, which we know isn’t possibly true, they would still only represent a small fraction of the overall Castle fans.

Here in Toronto last summer, our Toronto Blue Jays were on a roll, eventually securing a coveted playoff spot for the first time in twenty years.  Our team clinched a division title with very few games left in the season and they still had a fighting chance to continue their winning streak and go on to clinch the top spot in the American League.  But with few games left and a good playoff spot already clinched, they opted to rest players down the stretch and not fight for that top spot and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  There was a lot of controversy over that decision and some fans supported the decision to not take the risk of having any of our top players get injured for the playoffs while others disagreed and wanted the team to go all-out to try to clinch that top spot and get home field advantage, no matter the risks involved.  I was listening to the sports talk radio around that time on one of my morning commutes to work and heard one of the more prominent local analysts point out the error made by some of the recent callers who tried to state that the majority of the fans were angry about these decisions and quoted Twitter as one of their sources.  The sports analyst pointed out the numbers, suggesting very accurately that social media is not a proper barometer for measuring the true pulse of the fans.  People are more prone to take to social media to voice their displeasure than their approval and the percentage of fans who actually post on social media is a mere fraction of those who loyally tune in to the games on television, who buy tickets to support having the stadium sold-out for every home game, and who pay often ridiculous prices for merchandise to show their support for the team.  This was a point that I believe applies to not just sports but to all realms of entertainment because it’s true, the number of people who take to social media is only a small fraction of the fans who show their support or displeasure in other much more effective ways.

Message boards are no different; they appeal to likeminded people on the basis that our natural human nature is to gravitate to those we have things in common with.  Most people don’t like to have to debate their opinions or defend themselves on a daily basis so aside from a few who throw caution to the wind and dare post a differing opinion on a message board dominated by one particular way of seeing things, most will likely stay out of the discussions or find a different message board that better represents their own views.  Look at a board like CastleTV.net, which has long been one of the more successful sites for the online Castle fans to gather.  They have 14,973 registered members, likely a fraction of which are actual current and active posters.  In most cases, message boards tend to have 20 – 50 regular active posters, some more and some less, but generally the numbers are fairly low.  But even if we assumed all roughly 15,000 members posted on a regular basis and all felt the same way about things, they would again only represent 1% of the overall Castle audience.  So while we may be surrounded on a message board by people who feel the same way we do about the show or the current storyline, remember that while you feel like everyone around you sees it the same way you do, those people will still only represent a very small fraction of the overall audience.  So making statements that “the fans” or “the majority of the fans” see things that same way is a very dangerous thing because it alienates other fans who don’t feel that way.  It makes them either feel that they’re wrong or foolish for feeling the way they do when they’re told (falsely) that everyone else sees it a different way, or they know better but they still feel like they’re not welcome to share their thoughts on that particular site.

To help prove this point, I did a quick poll over just 24 hours this weekend on Twitter.  I asked people to participate in a poll to either state that they had enjoyed season eight so far, they didn’t enjoy the season so far, or they were undecided.  The results may surprise some but they were in line with what I was expecting to see.  Out of the 660 people who voted, 55% said they were enjoying the season so far, 23% said they were not enjoying it, and 22% said they were on the fence about it.  In this particular poll, the majority expressed that they enjoyed the season so far while the minority were split pretty equally between not liking it and not being undecided so far.  But here’s where, unlike others, I have no intention of using this to say that “the fans” or even “the majority of fans” have enjoyed the season.  After all, the actual point of this poll was to point out that results of such measures of the audience are skewed by various things.  In this case, I know that the larger portion of the fans who follow me are likeminded fans, people who tend to agree with the way that I see things rather than those who disagree.  There’s a mix, for sure, but people tend to gravitate to those they agree with more so than those they don’t agree with, hence I’m much more likely to have people following me who agree with my way of seeing things and who enjoy reading my take on the show in my weekly reviews rather than those who disagree or who cringe when they read my take on the show.  

So just like with social media feeds or message boards, I’m more likely to gather poll results that support that more people agree with my take than those who don’t.  But perhaps more importantly, the poll reinforces the fact that there’s no possible way to assume that “the fans” see things all the same way or that even “the majority of fans” see things one way.  Even though this poll showed the majority enjoyed the show, the reality is that actually only showed that the majority of people who participated in the poll saw it that way.  That’s still only a tiny fraction of the overall fandom, just the same way that it is when we base our assumptions on how many people on a message board agree with us or how many people on our Twitter feed express certain opinions about the show.  These are all such limited ways of getting the true pulse of the fans so how can we ever attempt to say we know what “the fans” think or what “the majority of the fans” think?  We will never know.

So rather than continuing to push others away by promoting our own individual views as being representative of the fandom in general, and rather than alienating people by being intolerant of the fact that not everyone sees things the way we do, let’s just say that our individual views are exactly that; our own individual views.  Let the rest of the fans speak for themselves.  And really, at the end of the day, our own personal enjoyment of the show shouldn’t depend on what anyone else thinks or feels about the show.

Those are the three main myths that I think we need to stop promoting as fact because it not only takes away from us discussing the important creative aspects of the show rather than trivial things, but it also often negatively affects other people out there.  We would be much better off concentrating on the show itself, not the things like ratings or network decisions or what other fans think because none of those things are in our control, none of those things have any impact on our own enjoyment or displeasure with the show (or they shouldn’t), and none of those are things we really know enough about to make factual statements about.  We have fourteen episodes left this season and I think we would be better off concentrating on the story presented in those episodes, the development of the characters, and engaging in intelligent and civilized discussions about all of those things because we all have a lot we can learn from one another as a fandom and these barriers we create between one another over trivial things just prevents us from getting the most out of being part of this community together.

With that said, let’s look forward to getting back to some new episodes for the rest of the season and I hope you’ll come back for my weekly reviews starting next Monday as well.