Article - A Commentary On Ratings

A Commentary on Ratings

Written By: Lisa Caputo

02-04-2015

One of the things I’m asked frequently about are the ratings and what they mean for Castle.  Personally, I’d rather fans didn’t follow the ratings period because trying to dissect what a network will take from ratings when one isn’t directly involved in that business is like me trying to figure out the Riemann Hypothesis… it just makes no sense. It would prevent a great amount of fear and frustration if ratings weren’t publicly released, especially in the format in which they are, as the numbers can be confusing and there are always factors that one needs to consider before weighing whether the numbers are truly good or truly bad.  And even then, there’s much more to a show’s success than solely what their overnight ratings are.

But since there’s a fascination with the ratings and determining what they mean for the show we love, I believe it’s simply a matter of educating oneself on the subject.  I did that a number of years ago, asking a close contact of mine who has worked both for various advertisers and a major Canadian network in exactly the realm in which one would have to know the ins and outs of ratings and what they mean for both parties.  And with the world of television viewing having changed significantly since then, I recently checked in again with this contact to get the goods on where networks and advertisers stand now.

First and foremost, we need to understand that ratings aren’t a perfect representation of what the actual public is watching.  In both Canada and the US, there are companies that solicit a small percentage of the viewing audience to participate in their ratings survey each year, with that sample audience being comprised of what is supposedly a diverse audience throughout the country. When speaking of the US ratings, the company that handles this work is Nielsen.  They provide their participants with a box to use within their household to record data on what shows they’re watching, when they’re tuning in or out of those shows, what they record and watch via DVR, etc.  This data is compiled by Nielsen and multiplied to represent the overall viewing audience in the US.  While Nielsen has always stood by their method as one that is a fairly accurate representation of what the viewing audience watches, it has also long been criticized as not being accurate enough.  Either way, it’s the system that has been used for ages in the television industry and it continues to be the only real way to track any representations of viewership. Nielsen will also adjust ratings based on things like shows being pre-empted in certain areas either for live sports or news coverage, or for weather-based outages that could affect the overall ratings.  Again, it’s not an exact science but it’s the only way to even estimate the ratings. Even still, we need to understand the simple fact that if you’re not a Nielsen household, your viewership isn’t being recorded and thus you don’t factor into those ratings.

Second, and this is a BIG second, ratings drive advertising dollars but advertising isn’t the only way that a network makes money off of a popular show.  Thus, ratings are not the be-all-and-end-all of a network’s decision to keep or drop a show.  What matters is how profitable the show is overall, which entails a combination of many sources of revenue that the show brings in, all of which is compared to the cost involved in producing the show (including cast and crew salaries, shooting budgets, etc.).  If a show isn’t profitable enough and the network has an ideal replacement available that they feel could be much more profitable, the show is a goner.  But if the show is profitable for the network and/or they don’t have a suitable replacement that would bring in more money for the network, the show is going to stay on the air.  So with Castle, we have to consider the advertising revenue (which is driven by ratings), DVD sales, book sales, e-book sales, comic sales, other merchandising, digital sales for episodes and seasons, syndication revenue, revenue brought in by Canadian or international broadcasters to buy the rights to air the show in their countries, revenue generated by website hits, etc.  In all of those categories, Castle is an extremely profitable show for the network, perhaps more so in this areas than most of their other shows would be.

Believe me when I say that the network will look at both the live (often called “overnight”) ratings and the live+7 ratings, though advertisers are still much more interested in the live ratings because with DVR viewership, most viewers will fast-forward through the commercials meaning the advertisers are paying for ad space that may not be seen by a large portion of the viewers.  So yes, the live numbers are always going to be the main driving force in setting advertising costs per ad space on any given show, thus they will be the main focus for advertisers.  However, even with the live numbers, there are things to consider.  While the 18-49 is commonly seen as the most important demographic, advertisers are also very keen on the 25-54 demographic as this is the age group with the highest income available to advertisers.  Also, something we don’t see released publicly but is a huge factor for advertisers is the male to female ratio of viewers as female viewers are much more valuable than male viewers (sorry, guys!).  Also, viewership is a factor that is often overlooked by those who try to “explain” the ratings to others on the online forums each week.  In fact, it’s a very overlooked factor but it’s an important one.  Higher viewership numbers mean (obviously) more viewers watching a particular ad.

It was explained to me by my contact as this; “advertisers are buying viewers, not programs.  They’re buying ad space on a show that skews to whatever their target audience is, which is why you’ll see ads geared towards stay-at-home mothers during daytime shows and more ads geared towards younger males during sporting events.  I was told to watch for the types of ads that are shown during a particular show and the types of companies that are advertising.  Cars, fast food, banks, and alcohol are among the top types of ads to look for because they indicate that the show is bringing in what the network needs in terms of the major advertisers.

But those live+7 ratings are important to the network as they show a much better representation of the full viewing audience, something that displays the popularity of the show as well as the marketability of that show.  People watch television in a much different way than they used to, a product of having so many choices and much less time to watch their favourite shows.  So even when it seems as though the live ratings seem low, it’s important not to try to compare them to the past seasons when viewing habits have changed so drastically, even in just the past year, that it becomes like trying to compare apples to oranges.  Comparing the live+7 ratings would give one a much stronger indication of whether a show is gaining or losing viewers than looking solely at the live ratings.

In its first episode of 2015, Castle pulled in a 1.3 in the 18-49 demo and had 6.77 million viewers watching live.  Sure, this seems like a low number but considering that January is typically a slower month for ratings and it was still keeping on par with other shows that week in comparison, it really wasn’t something to be concerned about.  And when the live+7 numbers were added in, the show jumped to a 2.4 in the demo and brought in 11.306 million viewers, making it the most-DVRd show of the week in terms of total viewers and adding a full 1.1 to their 18-49 demographic.  This is fantastic for a January episode.  And going further, one can then add in the 2.427 million viewers who watched that same episode here in Canada (making it the second most-watched show in the country for the week) and look at that North American audience as 13.733 million viewers.  Add to that the worldwide audience that Castle has and ABC has an easy 17-20 million viewers around the world for that one episode.  While this may not entice the advertisers, it certainly entices the network as it means there are 17-20 million people who are watching the show around the world and would likely be willing to spend money on DVDs, books, merchandising, digital episodes/seasons, etc., all of which factors into the overall revenue of the show and makes the show all the more profitable.

Lastly, if you want to know whether a show is likely to be renewed or not, your best bet is NOT to listen to some random poster on a Castle fansite, nor to me, nor to anyone other than the people involved with the show or the network themselves.  Did the network order an additional episode or multiple additional episodes in a given season?  If they did, it’s certainly not because they want to blow their money on a show that isn’t profitable enough for them so it’s a pretty good indication that a show is doing well for the network and they want an extra episode or two of that show in their season.  Have the cast and crew spoken about “next season” or “long-term” storylines or even just possibilities in interviews?  If they’re looking ahead and planning on what will be ahead in the next season, it’s likely they believe there will be a next season.  And in the case of Castle, has the network come right out and told the viewers that they’re very much hoping to resign the cast and crew for more seasons to keep this show on the air?  Yes, yes they did.  And they aren’t going to say that if they have no intention of doing everything (within reason) that they can to get the show back again next fall.

So please… pretty please with sugar on top… stop being fearful of the show being cancelled and please stop reading other people’s takes on what the weekly ratings mean for the show when the vast majority have no idea what the other factors are that the network is looking at right now.  Truthfully, I spent seasons three, four, five, and six reading these so-called “predictions” that the ratings were getting so bad that the network would pull the plug at the end of the season and I still laugh about the fact that there were people who were so convincing in their ways that they actually had people terrified of the show being cancelled and yet, low and behold, none of those predictions ever came true.

As with most things in life, either trust the experts, trust the people who speak on behalf of the show or the network themselves, or go forth and educate yourself in the best possible way to truly understand what it is that they’re looking for.  And when it comes to ratings, even the best education isn’t going to explain it all…  but just remember the hard and fast rule when it comes to a network deciding to cancel or renew a show… it’s not just the ratings, rather the overall profitability of the show itself.  There have been many high-rated shows that were axed because costs became too high to produce the show and there have been many lower-rated shows that went on for longer than they probably should have because they were not too costly to produce and provided decent profitability for the network (hence why reality shows are everywhere now… great profitability there).  It’s why cable shows run for shorter seasons with less episodes and why network shows that get to the point where the actors are paid more than the show makes with each episode get cancelled, even if they bring in high ratings.

So take the ratings with a grain of salt and pay more attention to the signs we get from the network and the cast and crew.  And maybe spend more time just enjoying the show and taking each episode in as we get them because no matter what, the show will unfortunately come to an end one day and we should make the most of this time that we have with each new episode before we’re forced to relive it all through DVDs alone.